CBO Affirms Affordable Care Act Lies
The Congressional Budget Office has affirmed the Affordable Care Act lies and released an updated path of destruction of the effects of ACA provisions. In the February release, the CBO released estimated effects on ACA health insurance coverage, Health Insurance Exchanges, and budgetary effects of the coverage provisions contained in the Act. It is becoming abundantly clear that this enormous piece of legislation was poorly researched, poorly planned, and now we will all pay the price. Perhaps most disturbing is a very early estimate on the affects of the ACA, and it is clearly showing the problems I have been so concerned about. Here’s what stands out to me:
Change in Employment Based Coverage:
An estimated 8 million employees will find themselves without employment sponsored coverage as the net result of increases and looses of offers of employment based coverage by 2018. If I were a betting man, I’d place my bet that this is still incredibly low. Whoever researched this (If anyone) had no small business experience. By determining a small business with 50 or more full time and full time equivalent employees, the genius that wrote this provision cost millions of employees their health insurance coverage. To say that they got this wrong is an understatement. This number is going to go through the roof! I work for small business and I have done the math. Far more employers than anticipated will choose to pay the penalty rather than provide health insurance as premiums skyrocket due to additional requirements and the inability to customize group insurance plans.
Uninsured Estimates under the Affordable Care Act:
This paints the picture of what’s really going on here. The CBO estimates that the number of uninsured non-elderly will decrease from 55 million to 31 million by 2016, or roughly 46%. The ACA is just like the shell game for hard working Americans. These numbers look great if you’re not the ones paying for it. Look no further than the HHS. Go there and you see nothing but sunshine, rainbows, and unicorns. Dig a little deeper (and you’ll have to dig) into the employer shared responsibilities, individual responsibilities, and potential premium offerings through the exchanges and you start to question the dynamics. The effect it will have on giant industries like hospitality, restaurant, staffing, franchise, retail, and service are grossly underestimated. I know as my family’s healthcare premiums skyrocket over the coming years, I’ll find little comfort in funding the exchanges. At least I can write off charity contributions.
Average Exchange Subsidy per Subsidized Enrollee:
The CBO estimates that the average subsidy will be $5,570 per enrollee by 2016. As 8 million of us get kicked to the exchange by our employers, I find this number extremely concerning. The IRS recently released estimates that in 2016 the lowest cost premium for a family will be $20,000 for use to calculate potential penalties. This is a dramatic increase from current premium averages (Almost the subsidy average). Here is the problem. If subsidies offset the increased premiums, we pay the price. As our employers send us to the exchanges, we will certainly miss one thing (Employer Premium Contributions). Take a look at your paycheck and plan on the cost of your health care insurance going up the amount your employer is contributing to your premiums. We can all thank the Affordable Care act for creating the incentive to stop offering employer sponsored health insurance.
By 2016, the CBO estimates that total exchange enrollment to be 24 million. Of those 24 million, it is estimated that 20% will be unsubsidized. 20% is a big number. An estimated 4 million will have to pay premium increases and employer contributions. Employment based coverage purchased through the exchanges is estimated to be 4 million by 2016. This number is a direct indicator that the “Level Playing Field” the administration set out to create will not work. Seriously, if the ACA created a competitive market place where small business could purchase health insurance for their employees economically, wouldn’t more than 4 million take advantage of it? I find this particularly comical as the administration touts a small business tax credit now of 35%, increasing to 50% for small employers that provide health insurance to their employees. We should just make it 100% since only 4 million are estimated to enroll. I’d be willing to bet that 90% of those 4 million are currently providing health benefits. Net effect of ACA incentives for small employers to provide health insurance is a joke.
Estimate of Budgetary Effects:
The CBO released the most disturbing income statement for the estimated effect on the Federal deficit. It’s bad enough that we’re estimating 1.3 trillion dollars of increase in the deficit over the next 11 years, but income sources disturb me most. Penalty payments by uninsured individuals are estimated to be 5 billion by 2016, and increase to 7 billion by 2023. If affordable state insurance exchanges actually worked as intended, wouldn’t we expect this to decrease? Penalty payments by employers are expected to increase from 12 billion in 2016 to 21 billion in 2023. I guess they expect the same thing I do (Millions of us getting kicked to the exchange).
The CBO release just affirms my concerns with the ACA. Hard working middle class Americans will be the casualties of this poorly researched and planned implementation. I still find it difficult to believe this is really happening. It becomes clearer every day that the administration got it wrong and many of us will pay the price.